Regulatory Update

ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – April 2026

The European Central Bank’s April 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey reveals a mixed picture of consumer sentiment across the euro area. While perceived inflation over the past year has risen sharply to 4.0 %, expectations for inflation over the next year remain unchanged, and the medium‑term outlook has softened slightly. Nominal income growth expectations have fallen to 0.8 % from 1.2 % in March, yet consumers anticipate a modest rise in spending, with expected consumption growth at 4.3 % versus 4.1 % previously. Economic growth expectations have slipped further into negative territory at –2.2 %, although the anticipated unemployment rate has eased marginally to 11.2 %. Housing expectations remain stable, with home‑price growth projected at 3.7 % and mortgage rates at 4.9 %. Credit conditions, however, are perceived as tightening, with the share of households expecting stricter access to credit at its highest level since early 2024.

These findings are drawn from a monthly online survey of approximately 19,000 adult consumers in 11 euro‑area countries. The data are intended to inform policy analysis and complement other macro‑economic indicators monitored by the ECB.

Why it matters

Consumer perceptions of inflation and future economic conditions are key inputs in the ECB’s assessment of monetary policy effectiveness. The rise in perceived inflation, coupled with unchanged inflation expectations for the next year, suggests that consumers are reacting to recent price pressures but remain cautious about longer‑term price stability. This divergence can influence the demand for credit, savings behaviour, and the velocity of money—factors that directly affect the transmission of policy rates.

The decline in income growth expectations alongside a modest rise in spending expectations signals a potential shift in consumption patterns. If households anticipate lower earnings yet maintain or increase consumption, this could exert upward pressure on demand‑side inflation, especially in sectors sensitive to discretionary spending. For banks, such dynamics may translate into changes in loan demand, credit risk profiles, and the pricing of consumer credit products.

The tightening sentiment around credit availability, reflected in the highest net tightening ratio since February 2024, indicates that lenders may be tightening underwriting standards or that borrowers perceive higher costs of borrowing. This environment is significant for trade finance, where corporate borrowing and working‑capital needs are closely tied to the broader credit climate.

Key points

  • Perceived inflation over the past 12 months rose to 4.0 %, while next‑year inflation expectations stayed flat at 4.0 %.
  • Nominal income growth expectations fell to 0.8 %, yet expected consumption growth rose to 4.3 %.
  • Economic growth expectations turned more negative at –2.2 %, but the expected unemployment rate eased to 11.2 %.
  • Housing expectations remained unchanged: home‑price growth at 3.7 % and mortgage rates at 4.9 %.
  • Credit conditions are perceived as tightening, with the net tightening ratio reaching its highest level since early 2024.

Institutional context

The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) is a monthly instrument that captures the views of a representative sample of adult consumers across the euro area. The 2026 wave, conducted between 2 April and 4 May, included around 19,000 respondents from Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, and Finland. The survey is designed to complement traditional macro‑economic data sources and is used by the ECB to gauge the public’s outlook on inflation, income, consumption, growth, employment, housing, and credit.

The statistical methodology relies on a 2 % winsorised mean, ensuring that extreme responses do not unduly influence aggregate figures. The survey’s design allows for cross‑sectional analysis by income quintile, age group, and country, providing granular insights into heterogeneity within the euro‑area population. The results are published monthly on the ECB’s website and data portal, enabling real‑time policy monitoring.

From a supervisory perspective, the CES offers a window into the expectations that may drive borrower behaviour. For banks, understanding consumer sentiment is essential for assessing credit risk, particularly in the context of consumer loans, mortgages, and trade finance facilities that rely on the perceived stability of the economy and the cost of borrowing.

Practical considerations

Credit risk assessment

The heightened perception of tightening credit conditions suggests that lenders may face increased demand for risk mitigation. Banks should review underwriting criteria, especially for retail and small‑to‑medium‑enterprise (SME) borrowers, to ensure that credit limits and collateral requirements remain commensurate with evolving expectations. The decline in the share of consumers applying for credit indicates a possible slowdown in loan demand, which may affect portfolio composition and provisioning requirements.

Pricing of consumer and corporate

Source: ECB Press